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J Am Med Inform Assoc 10:555-562 doi:10.1197/jamia.M1377
  • Original Investigation

Detection of Pediatric Respiratory and Diarrheal Outbreaks from Sales of Over-the-counter Electrolyte Products

Table 5

Mean Earliness of Detection for Various Sigma Detection Thresholds

Detection Threshold Earliness (wk)* Earliness 95% CI Sensitivity (%) Specificity (%) Electrolytes Precede Admissions* Electrolytes No Later than Admissions* Admissions Precede Electrolytes*
8.0 100 89
9.0 2.4 (0.1–4.8) 100 100 12 14 4
10.0 2.9 (0.8–5.1) 100 100 13 15 3
11.0 3.3 (1.3–5.3) 100 100 13 15 3
12.0 3.2 (1.1–5.2) 100 100 13 14 4
13.0 3.6 (1.7–5.5) 100 100 14 16 2
14.0 3.9 (2.1–5.7) 100 100 16 16 2
15.0 4.1 (2.2–6.0) 100 100 16 16 2
16.0 4.1 (2.1–6.0) 100 100 16 16 2
17.0 4.1 (2.4–5.8) 100 100 16 16 2
18.0 4.3 (2.6–6.0) 100 100 16 16 2
19.0 4.4 (2.7–6.1) 100 100 16 16 2
20.0 4.4 (2.7–6.1) 100 100 16 16 2
21.0† 4.7 (2.8–6.5) 100 100 16 16 2

  • ↵* n = 18 outbreaks.

  • ↵† Above a threshold of 21.0, EWMA failed to detect at least one outbreak from hospital diagnoses.

This Article

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