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J Am Med Inform Assoc 15:77-86 doi:10.1197/jamia.M2587
  • Original Investigation

Recombinant Temporal Aberration Detection Algorithms for Enhanced Biosurveillance

Table 2

Percent Area Under the ROC Curve Averaged Across All 16 Data Series and 3- and 4-sigma Outbreak Sizes for All Possible Combinations of Data Forecasters and Anomaly Measures for Both SlowRise and Spike outbreaks

CUSUM Adaptive EWMA GScan3 GScan7 Z-Score WEWD Z-Score Mean Range
SlowRise
EWMA 37.97 46.19 46.61 37.74 46.91 43.13 43.097 9.17
MovAvg7 50.02 53.59 51.32 33.43 59.81 61.97 51.69 28.54
MovAvg56 54.16 57.44 55.97 42.61 63.50 63.66 (4) 56.22 21.05
WEWD MovAvg7 57.67 65.84 (2) 52.32 34.21 58.31 68.69 (1) 56.17 34.48
Holt Winters 58.16 61.22 65.13 (3) 46.51 59.81 63.28 59.02 18.62
AdaptiveRegression 53.82 55.66 36.33 14.02 54.64 59.47 45.66 45.45
Mean 51.97 56.66 51.28 34.75 57.16 60.03
Range 20.19 19.65 28.8 32.49 16.59 25.56
Spike
EWMA 71.17 71.00 59.25 48.18 58.78 79.70 64.68 31.52
MovAvg7 74.83 86.20 68.62 43.56 83.92 98.12 75.88 54.56
MovAvg56 74.01 86.80 60.77 53.52 84.51 97.35 76.16 43.83
WEWD MovAvg7 93.08 98.78 (2) 45.73 38.73 97.39 97.57 78.55 60.05
Holt Winters 95.27 98.76 (3) 50.57 63.98 98.73 (4) 98.90 (1) 84.37 48.33
AdaptiveRegression 82.14 96.33 40.67 24.23 97.60 97.29 73.04 73.37
Mean 81.75 89.65 54.27 45.37 86.82 94.82
Range 24.10 27.78 27.95 39.75 39.95 19.20

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