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J Am Med Inform Assoc 16:338-345 doi:10.1197/jamia.M2772
  • Original Investigation

Forecasting Emergency Department Crowding: A Prospective, Real-time Evaluation

Table 2

Calibration of the Simulation in Forecasting Operational Data*

2 h Ahead 4 h Ahead 6 h Ahead 8 h Ahead
Waiting count (# of patients) 0.0 ± 4.5 0.9 ± 5.8 1.6 ± 6.5 2.2 ± 7.0
Waiting time (hours) −0.1 ± 0.6 0.1 ± 0.9 0.3 ± 1.1 0.5 ± 1.3
Occupancy level (% of beds) 2.4 ± 9.6 2.5 ± 11.2 2.9 ± 12.1 3.3 ± 12.9
Length of stay (hours) −0.7 ± 1.0 −0.8 ± 1.3 −0.8 ± 1.5 −0.8 ± 1.6
Boarding count (# of patients) 0.3 ± 2.5 0.2 ± 3.1 0.1 ± 3.6 0.1 ± 3.9
Boarding time (hours) −6.6 ± 2.7 −7.3 ± 3.1 −7.7 ± 3.3 −7.8 ± 3.5
  • * The forecasting residuals are summarized with the mean ± standard deviation.

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