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J Am Med Inform Assoc 8:391-397 doi:10.1136/jamia.2001.0080391
  • Original Investigation

Searching for Clinical Prediction Rules in MEDLINE

Table 3

Performance Measures for Search Filters with High-accuracy Measures

Search Filters* Sensitivity (95% CI) Specificity (95% CI) Positive Predictive Value (95% CI) Positive Likelihood Ratio (95% CI)
Filters with both sensitivity and specificity above 90%:
1—Validat$ OR Predict$.ti. OR Decision Support Techniques/ OR Rule$ OR Predictive Value of Tests/
2—Predict$ AND (Clinical$ OR Identif$)
3—OR 1–2*
 Derivation set 92.1% (83.3–97.0) 94.2% (93.7–94.6) 8.5% (6.5–10.9) 15.8 (14.3–17.6)
 Validation set 91.1% (81.3–96.6) 94.2% (93.8–94.6) 7.5% (5.7–9.8) 15.7 (14.1–17.6)
Predict$ OR Validat$ OR Rule$ OR
Predictive Value of Tests/
 Derivation set 92.1% (83.3–97.0) 92.8% (92.3–93.3) 6.9% (5.3–8.9) 12.8 (11.6–14.1)
 Validation set 91.1% (81.3–96.6) 93.0% (92.5–93.5) 6.3% (4.8–8.3) 13.0 (11.7–14.5)
1—Validat$ OR Predict$.ti. OR Decision Support Techniques/ OR Rule$ OR Predictive Value of Tests/
2—Predict$ AND (Variable$ OR Factor$ OR Model$ OR Develop$ OR Sensitivit$ OR Clinical$ OR Independent$ OR Prospective OR Identif$)
3—Clinical$ AND (Independent$ OR Model$ OR Sensitivit$)
 Derivation set 92.1% (83.3–97.0) 90.8% (90.2–91.3) 5.5% (4.2–7.1) 10.0 (9.1–11.0)
 Validation set 92.9% (83.7–97.7) 91.0% (90.5–91.6) 5.1% (3.9–6.7) 10.3 (9.4–11.4)
4—OR 1–3*
Predict$ OR Validat$
 Derivation set 90.5% (81.2–96.0) 93.4% (93.0–93.9) 7.4% (5.7–9.6)` 13.8 (12.4–15.4)
 Validation set 85.7% (74.7–93.1) 93.6% (93.1–94.0) 6.4% (4.8–8.5) 13.3 (11.7–15.1)
Top filters for positive predictive value and likelihood ratios:
Decision Support Techniques/ AND Predictive Value of Tests/
 Derivation set 4.8% (1.2–12.4) 100% (99.97–100.00) 100% (31.0–100.0) Undefined
 Validation set 1.8% (0.1–8.5) 99.96% (99.90–99.99) 20.0% (1.1–70.1) 48 (5–425)
Decision Support Techniques/ AND Predict$.ti.
 Derivation set 3.2% (0.5–10.1) 100% (99.97–100.00) 100% (19.8–100.00) Undefined
 Validation set 1.8% (0.1–8.5) 99.95% (99.89–99.98) 16.7% (0.9–63.5) 39 (5–326)
Predict$.ti. AND Rule$
 Derivation set 9.5% (4.0–18.8) 99.99% (99.94–100.00) 85.7% (42.0–99.2) 1,030 (126–8,431)
 Validation set 16.1% (8.1–27.4) 99.97% (99.91–99.99) 75.0% (42.8–93.3) 580 (161–2,085)
  • * Numbers represent separately entered search statements. A slash (/) indicates a term searched as a subject heading.

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